Application of Integrated Auto-Regression and ARIMA Models to Production Al-Muraqeb Cement Factory for the period (1993 - 2013)

Abstract

 In this research, the stages of using the Box-Jenkins annual methodology for prediction at the theoretical and applied levels have been identified and explained by constructing the time series model for forecasting the annual productivity of the cement factory. The data used in the annual work productivity of the cement factory for the period (1993-2013) were obtained from the production department of the National Cement Company. The data were analyzed using the time series according to the Box-Jenkins method using MINTAB program. The most important results of the research are that the time series of production in the factory is not static. The appropriate model for estimating the annual work productivity of the cement factory is ARIMA (1,2,1). Therefore, we recommend that the competent authorities use the ARIMA model (1,2,1) to predict labor productivity annual sessions for the coming years.